NWA-PCUG 01/00 NewsLetter Article 18861 N. Hwy 112, Springdale, AR 72762-9303 January 2000 article(12/13/99) Ken's Korner Computing Faces Major Changes As We Move Into the Year 2000 by Ken Fermoyle Now that "Y2K" is behind us and we are actually into the year 2000, it's time to look at the changes we can expect in computers and how we use them. Predictions are risky, but two things are certain. First, there will be major alterations in the very structure of computing. Second, some will benefit grassroots computer users-but many will not. In fact, they probably will have just the opposite effect. Microsoft will be the focal point for many of the changes. Some will result from the Department of Justice (DOJ) and state attorneys general suit against the company. Also pending are suits against Microsoft by Sun Microsystems, Bristol Technology and other companies, not to mention several class actions that have been filed. Findings already made by Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson in the DOJ case guarantee shifts in the way Gates & Co. do business. The questions are when and how. Other changes will come from within Microsoft itself. Long Struggle or Compromise? On the legal front, opinion is divided as to whether Microsoft and DOJ can reach a compromise settlement. Most observers felt this would not happen, than Bill Gates would fight any decision by Judge Jackson all the way through the appeal process up to the Supreme Court. This kind of delaying action could take years. It would be very expensive, but Microsoft has deep pockets and Gates has shown in the past that he can be a stubborn, difficult adversary. Those hoping for a settlement were encouraged when Judge Jackson tapped Judge Richard A. Posner, chief judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit in Chicago, to mediate between the Department of Justice, state attorneys general and Microsoft. Posner is a well-respected jurist and an expert in economics and antitrust law. He has looked with favor on corporate arguments in other antitrust situations. The computer press and other media regard his appointment as an attempt to assure Microsoft that it will get a fair hearing from a mediator who is not a fervent supporter of antitrust actions. Microsoft spokesman Jim Cullinan said the company looks forward to working with Posner toward a fair resolution to the case. "We think this is potentially a very positive step. Both sides voluntarily agreed to it," Cullinan added. What will happen eventually? Microsoft could be hit by anything from a large fine to a court order requiring that it spin off one or more individual companies. Almost certainly, it will have to stop treating Internet Explorer as an integral part of the operating system (OS) and change its high-handed dealings with PC vendors, which has virtually forced those vendors to use the Window OS. However, it's done, the DOJ and attorneys general seem determined to "restore competition" by nullifying Microsoft's "monopolistic practices." That would be good news for Linux and other Open Source software, as well as for resurgent Apple. Market share for them is still tiny compared to the Windows OS, of course. Buy or Lease? Perhaps more disturbing for many of us are indications that Microsoft and other software companies plan a dramatic change in the way software is distributed. It seems the trend will be to the system increasingly used by automobile companies: leasing of products rather than selling them outright. This has obvious benefits for the vendors. Microsoft and others could reduce packaging and distribution costs and perhaps reduce the piracy potential. It could also insure a smoother cash flow than results from the peaks that now occur when new software versions are introduced and valleys as sales decrease over time. It also solves the growing problem of people and companies who refuse to upgrade slavishly when a new software version debuts. It provides benefits for corporate uses too, as we will see, but what does it mean for us grassroots users working in our home offices or small businesses? My feeling is that such a trend does not look good from our standpoint. Corporations should love it, especially the Information Technology (IT) people. They will be able to get rid of those pesky PCs, which employees insist on customizing to suit themselves and their jobs. Dumb machines, not much different from the terminals that were my introduction to computing some 20 years ago. Application Service Providers (ASPs) will provide programs. An ASP is defined in a Spotlight Service Report as "a third-party service firm, which deploys, manages and remotely hosts a pre-packaged software application through centrally located servers in a 'rental' or lease arrangement. In exchange for accessing the application, the client renders rental-like payments." (The report also notes that independent software vendor (ISV) could bypass a third party and act as its own ASP. Don't you think Bill Gates would find it attractive to eliminate the middleman completely?) Death of the PC? Note the terms "remotely hosts" and "centrally located servers." That means accessing software via the Internet, or perhaps a gigantic corporate Wide Area Network (WAN) or an Extranet. Whatever, it essentially leaves grassroots users out in the cold. Can you imagine trying to use a modem and dial-up access use all your software if it was located on the Internet? It boggles the mind! Most of us don't have the broadband Internet access available to big corporations. But if leasing of software becomes the norm, how else could vendors control their user base other than by having them access it from a central host that could be monitored easily? Not to worry, corporate spokesmen hasten to assure us, the PC is dead anyway. Oh really, and when did this happen? Last time I looked PC sales were up last year over the previous year-which were higher than the year before, etcetera, etcetera-despite shortages of chips and other components caused by the Taiwan earthquakes. IBM's 1998 annual report issued last spring had a whole section titled "The PC Era Is Over." Major PC antagonists such as Sun Microsystems' Scott McNealy and Oracle's Larry Ellison have been singing the same song for several years. But how much of that is sour grapes? Are McNealy and Ellison still pouting because their vision of the Net PC died on the vine? IBM CEO Lou Gerstner believes that "new personal computing devices, such as personal digital assistants, Web-enabled TVs, screenphones, smart cards, and a host of products we have yet to imagine" will gradually replace the personal computer. Maybe so, but I don't expect to be tossing my PCs on the scrap heap anytime soon. I do expect to be upgrading and/or replacing them with new, faster, more capable machines well into the 21st century, which will not start officially until January 1, 2001, of course. What's your opinion? I'd love to hear from you on these points. I will revisit this subject of more computing changes we can expect in an upcoming column-and I will include insightful comments from readers. Copyright 1999 by Ken Fermoyle, Fermoyle Publications. Ken Fermoyle has written some 2,500 articles for publications ranging from Playboy and Popular Science to MacWeek, Microtimes & PC Laptop. Ken's Korner, a syndicated monthly column, is available free to User Groups. For information or permission to reprint this article, contact kfermoyle@earthlink.net.